InfoDengue-Mosqlimate Challenge opens registrations for its 3rd edition with dengue and chikungunya forecasts
Until 15 May, research teams from anywhere in the world can register for the third edition of the InfoDengue-Mosqlimate Challenge (IMDC). The challenge is an international initiative led by the InfoDengue and Mosqlimate projects, in partnership with the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), aimed at developing predictive models for arboviruses in Brazil.
The IMDC was launched in 2024, when Brazil recorded more than 6.5 million dengue cases, a historic high, according to the Brazilian Ministry of Health. That same year, dengue spread to more southerly areas and higher altitudes, whilst chikungunya also advanced and the oropouche fever virus expanded, two further arboviruses of public health concern.
How to register for IMDC 2026
Teams may bring together researchers from different institutions and countries working in fields such as epidemiology, data science, statistics, mathematical modelling, and related areas. Registered teams will be able to submit forecasts in two stages: a validation phase and a forecasting phase for the 2026–2027 season.
Taking part in the IMDC is an opportunity for researchers to contribute to applied science addressing a major public health challenge by integrating epidemiological, climatic, and sociodemographic data. Team’s results are combined into an ensemble model, an approach that brings together forecasts from multiple models to generate a more robust estimate. This integrated model can be used as a decision-support tool for the Brazilian Ministry of Health in efforts to mitigate potential outbreaks in 2027.
2026 highlights: municipal-level dengue and chikungunya forecasts
This edition broadens the scope of forecasts: in addition to state-level estimates, the IMDC incorporates municipal-level predictions for the first time, bringing results closer to local operational needs. The challenge also introduces forecasts for chikungunya. "Forecasting dengue cases is an extremely complex task, and our challenge aims to bring together the best groups in Brazil and worldwide working on predictive modelling of dengue to forecast the dengue situation in Brazil one year ahead," highlights Fiocruz researcher and one of the challenge's Scientific Committee members, Leonardo Bastos.
One of the initiative’s distinguishing features lies in the integration of diverse data sources. "One of the most innovative key points is the way we use data on health, climate, environment and vector to make more reliable forecasts, a technology that can be incorporated by epidemiological surveillance teams into their routine, providing additional evidence for prevention policies," explains FGV researcher and chair of the IMDC Organizing Committee, Fabiana Ganem.
Since its first edition in 2024, the IMDC has grown significantly: the second edition brought together 15 national and international teams, with 19 forecasting models covering all Brazilian states. "The third edition of the IMDC consolidates the relevance and impact of our dengue forecasting challenge, which since its first edition has had the collaboration of the Ministry of Health. The quality and applicability of our technical results have been gaining recognition through publications and partnerships for the use of predictive models nationally and internationally," states FGV researcher and chair of the IMDC Scientific Committee, Flávio Coelho.
How to sign up
InfoDengue-Mosqlimate Challenge (IMDC): 3rd Edition
Registration period: 1 April to 15 May 2026
Registration page: https://sprint.mosqlimate.org/registration/
Instructions and schedule: https://sprint.mosqlimate.org/
About the IMDC
An international initiative by the InfoDengue and Mosqlimate projects, established through a partnership between Fiocruz and FGV, with support from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, The Global Health Network Latin America and the Caribbean (TGHN LAC), and Fiocruz’s Scientific Computing Programme (PROCC).