Fiocruz hosts international webinar on predictive models for the 2026 dengue season
On 31 October 2026, at 2 p.m. (Brasília time), the international webinar “Preparing for the 2026 dengue season: insights from predictive models” will take place, organised by Fiocruz in partnership with the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV).
The online event is promoted by the Vice-Presidency of Education, Information and Communication (VPEIC/Fiocruz), through the Scientific Computing Programme (PROCC/Fiocruz), and the consortium The Global Health Network Latin America and the Caribbean (TGHN LAC).
Registration is open, and the webinar will be streamed in Portuguese, English, and Spanish on the VideoSaúde Fiocruz YouTube channel. Register here to receive reminders, the streaming link, and event updates.
Modelling and surveillance: preparing the response to dengue 2026
Researchers from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Claudia Codeço and Oswaldo G. Cruz, together with Flávio Coelho from the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and Lívia Vinhal, General Coordinator for Arbovirus Surveillance at Brazil’s Ministry of Health, will discuss the forecasts for the upcoming dengue season, based on statistical models applied to epidemiological surveillance.
The webinar programme will include:
- Presentation of the Mosqlimate Project, dedicated to producing predictive models and detecting changes in the transmissibility patterns of arboviruses;
- A discussion on the integration of predictive models into dengue surveillance;
- Presentation of the Sprint results and the ensemble model, conducted by research teams from FGV, Fiocruz, and international partners;
- An interactive session and open discussion with the audience.
Lessons guiding the 2026 dengue forecast
In 2025, 52 researchers from different teams around the world participated in the “2nd InfoDengue–Mosqlimate Dengue Challenge (IMDC)”, organised by the Mosqlimate and InfoDengue projects. They developed predictive models to estimate dengue occurrence in Brazil.
The results, presented on 15 October, showed advances in data integration and uncertainty calibration, reinforcing the importance of transparent models and diverse methodologies to support public health decision-making.
However, it is important to emphasise that statistical models are subject to uncertainties and adaptations — they should be used as decision-support tools, not as definitive forecasts.
Registration and participation in the 2026 dengue webinar
The registration aims to keep the audience informed about the event by sending the access link, reminders, updates, and information on available languages.
Register here to follow the latest updates on dengue 2026.
The webinar will be broadcast live on the VideoSaúde Fiocruz YouTube channel, with simultaneous translation in Portuguese, English, and Spanish.
Watch on the VideoSaúde Fiocruz channel and join the international discussions on predictive models.